A lot has changed in the Middle East since our last update during the ceasefire in late November that finally ended 13-months of escalating conflict between the IDF and various Iranian-backed militias in the country.
This post will seek to update everyone on the post-war rebuild efforts currently going on in heavily damaged areas of the country, and also to answer questions about what the future might hold for the displaced Syrian refugees we have been helping for almost the past decade.
We are thankful that so far the ceasefire here has mostly held up. Things have not returned to the state they were in before with daily (often hourly) aerial bombings and targeted drone strikes across the country. The displaced people have almost all returned to their areas to begin rebuilding. Life in general in the country is moving on to a post-conflict phase of picking up the pieces and putting the country back together again.
At the same time, within weeks of the ceasefire coming into effect, Turkish-backed rebel groups in neighboring Syria launched a surprise offensive that swept through the country. In a relatively short time, the ruling regime fell and their military forces dissipated, with most of them being unwilling conscripts that deserted their posts rather than fight the advancing rebels.
The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria is one of the most politically significant events to happen in the Middle East in our lifetime. The civil war that began in 2011 between the regime and the Syrian rebels was the catalyst for almost all of the massive refugee displacement happening in this region for the last 13 years. The Syrian civil war is the primary reason our team has labored in partnership with local Christians so long in this region amongst displaced Syrian refugees.
If you are unaware of the details of what happened on Dec 8th, 2024 when the regime fell, Wikipedia has a helpful summary of events here: Fall of the Assad Regime.
The end of this civil war with a decisive, sweeping victory by the Turkish-backed rebel forces sent shockwaves throughout the region. The refugees we know here were just as surprised as us to see the sudden collapse of the 50-year Assad regime happen almost overnight. The future implications are uncertain and unknown.
Many Syrian refugees we know and have have helped over the last 9 years were initially overjoyed, hoping this meant they could return to their homes soon. However, as the situation progresses in Syria, the possibility of immediate refugee returns is less likely to happen quickly than some first thought.
While the civil war between the Assad government and Sunni rebels is definitively ended, there is real concern of the possibility of a new civil war brewing, one drawn along ethnic and religious lines. There is also a need for Syria to be rebuilt for it to be able to receive once again the millions displaced over the past decade.
Post-War Rebuild Efforts
Many of the families we helped with food and other needs during the two months of intense war here returned home within days of the ceasefire being announced. However, almost all returned to homes damaged by nearby airstrikes. Some couldn’t return home as the damage was initially too great, and they continued to live with relatives.
People that we helped during their displacement in our mountain area began to reach out to us asking for help with minor and major repairs. In many cases, windows were shattered from nearby blasts or doors severely damaged. In several cases, walls or roofs were cracked and damaged, leading to rain water leaking into homes.
We have a growing amount of damaged homes on our list from people in three main former conflict areas requesting repair help. We’ve begun with fixing windows on a dozen of them, with most of them finally complete as of this week, although we are still waiting on glass to be available for some. For obvious reasons, there is a national shortage of glass right now, so wait times do occur.
Many of those homes also require wall and roof/ceiling repairs before the heavy winter rains set in, and some still need doors fixed too. We are hoping to be able to begin those repairs soon! Pray the Lord might use these continued opportunities to serve those greatly affected by the war this year, and open new doors to serve.
The Current Situation in Syria
The situation in Syria remains fluid and unpredictable. The government is now run by the head of the jihadist Islamist militia called “Hayat Tahrir Al Sham” (HTS). Despite the groups background as a former Al-Qaeda affiliate group, the leader appears to be trying very hard to distance himself from extremist ties and reassure the people of Syria that their government does not intend to become an “ISIS 2.0” caliphate. Many locals and Syrian refugees here hope that those statements are sincere. Despite the evils of the former Assad regime, none are too keen to see a return of an ISIS-style hard-line Islamic government ruling over Syria either.
However, Syria is a large country. Despite the leader’s attempts from his new seat of power in Damascus to keep the dozen or so Islamic militias that helped drive out the Assad regime in line with his centrist policies, there are local reports of these militia members carrying out violent attacks on non-Sunni Muslim groups in other areas of Syria. Though the new government seems to be acting to stop these attacks officially, such things are fueling fear and even physical displacement among the vast amounts of ethnic/religious minorities in various parts of Syria.
In addition to the Sunni Muslim majority that now finds itself in power, the country is comprised of a large minority of Orthodox, Assyrian and Catholic Christians, Shiite and Alawite Muslims, Druze, and even some small enclaves of Evangelicals. Many of these groups reportedly have tangible fears for their future in the new Syria.
No one wants to see a new wave of refugees coming out of Syria. But that is already beginning to happen in modest numbers. It is not the millions like in 2011-2014, but it is already in the tens of thousands. Shiites and Alawites have been quietly streaming over the borders into neighboring countries like Iraq and Lebanon that have communities of their same ethnic/religious groups that they feel protected in.
In one border city in Lebanon there were local news reports a couple weeks ago of some 30,000 newly displaced Syrian refugees. That number is possibly much higher by now, as many locals we know seem to all know someone new in their area that fled from Syria in recent weeks. Whether this will turn into a larger scale displacement, or the new Syrian leadership can convince people from minority groups it is safe to return to their homes, remains to be seen.
Possible Refugee Returns Next Year?
What does the fall of the Assad regime and the end of the Syrian civil war mean for the future of the millions of displaced Syrian refugees? The expressed hope of the new Syrian government, and groups like the UN, is that in the coming year many could return home. That may well be possible, but it doesn’t seem to be happening in large numbers just yet.
Amongst the many hundreds of refugee families we’ve come to know over the years, so far we know of about a half dozen that returned already to areas in Syria. The local government here reports several thousands of Syrians returning in past weeks, but not the hundreds of thousands yet expected. Most seem to be waiting to see what happens with the new government in coming months and whether a new conflict will arise between factions in Syria.
The return of millions largely depends on if there truly will be stability and security in Syria or if it will become another situation like Libya did after the fall of their regime in 2011. In Libya, the country fractured into various warring territories controlled by well-armed militias that are still fighting to this day. Nobody hopes to see that in Syria, but the possibility is a real risk.
What we expect to see is a gradual return of Sunni Syrian refugees to Syria likely beginning in the spring or early summer of next year (2025) if things remain stable. Not all are expected to return though. Some have settled into new lives and been out of their country for over a decade. They are reluctant to return to a badly damaged country and start life all over again.
Others have no home to return to, as their areas were completely devastated by fighting from the civil war. Many in these situations will likely find ways to achieve legal status in their host countries in order to remain after no longer being classed as refugees.
Moving Forward Into a New Year and New Reality
What does this dramatic change of events mean for the TGI mission in the region that has been focused primarily on serving and reaching displaced refugees for almost a decade? It seems no small providence of the Lord that in recent years there had been a growing shift towards also helping the increasingly poor and destitute locals greatly affected by their own country’s economic collapse and myriad of woes. In recent months, that became a primary focus as the team here worked with the local church to provided bedding and daily food for about 600 local Lebanese displaced from the war in their country.
Many in this country, as well as in Syria, are war-weary, impoverished and badly in need of help rebuilding after these prolonged conflicts. As things potentially shift to a post-war focus in both countries, certain aspects of the current compassion ministry may be less needed than during the earlier crisis period. Currently, the needs are little different than before, as things have not tangibly improved for the situation of most locals and refugees. But moving forward into next year, it is quite possible the needs will change in the coming months.
However, at the same time new needs and opportunities present themselves. Helping to rebuild and repair homes in communities affected by the war is a start, but likely not the end. It will take years to put the pieces back together in many of these places. As things progress we are prayerfully seeking new open doors to serve out here for the Lord’s name and glory.
We are also very aware of the needs of new refugees coming in over the borders. The local believers here are seeking to do what they can to help those truly in need that who arrive in or near our area. It is quite possible these new refugees will be as much in need as the “old” refugees, depending on what happens politically in the year ahead in Syria.
Pray with us that the Lord would give wisdom in these rapidly changing times. We know God is in control of all these events as they unfold. He has His purposes in it. For our part, we seek to continue on out here helping those in need in the year ahead, and be ready to pivot focus as new doors may be opened.
If you wish to be involved in any way, you can support TGI via our site, sign up for our relief updates e-mail newsletter to better know how to pray, or contact us if you are interested in knowing more about how to be personally involved.
We are a faith mission that looks entirely to the Lord Jesus for our ministry needs. We do not directly solicit donations, we will not fill your inbox with promotional emails, and we certainly will not share your contact details if you join our mailing list!
